Le "conte de O'Goffe's" est-il fantaisiste et absurde ?

Résumé du document

“O'Goffe's Tale” arose in the late 1970s and 80s as a prediction of the impending failure of the Keynesian welfare state, an amalgamation of the theories of it's leading advocates (O'Connor, 2002; Gough, 1979; Offe, 1984). They, along with many other economists of the period, believed that the welfare states were doomed to lurch from one fiscal crisis to the next due to faults inherent within the capitalist system. As time has passed however, despite the validity of many of O'Goffe's points, the scenario has not yet played out how they predicted and the ‘Tale' has received much criticism. Nevertheless, despite its underestimation welfare state's resilience, dismissing the entire theory would be a mistake; important subjects such as the division of power within these states and who wields it are examined.

O'Goffe's Tale is based on the assumption that the state must attempt to fulfil two mutually contradictory functions. O'Goffe uses the Marxist principle that the state is a part of the capitalist superstructure, that large monopolist corporations are the foundations of its power and so the state/party in control must ensure conditions conducive to profit accumulation at all times to maintain capitalism and facilitate its reproduction.

Extraits

[...] Is “O'Goffe's Tale” fanciful and absurd? “O'Goffe's Tale” arose in the late 1970s and 80s as a prediction of the impending failure of the Keynesian welfare state, an amalgamation of the theories of it's leading advocates (O'Connor, 2002; Gough, 1979; Offe, 1984). They, along with many other economists of the period, believed that the welfare states were doomed to lurch from one fiscal crisis to the next due to faults inherent within the capitalist system. As time has passed however, despite the validity of many of O'Goffe's points, the scenario has not yet played out how they predicted and the ‘Tale' has received much criticism. [...]

[...] Despite their final conclusions being found wanting, O'Goffe's use of sociology to understand state policy will surely prove useful in the future as a whole barrage of new crises are predicted. Demographic change such as dropping fertility rates and an ageing population are often seen as the most pressing. Dropping worker/dependent ratios, the political strength of the aged beneficiaries, and the large proportion of welfare spending that elderly care represents all combine to inspire more grim forecasts in the years ahead (Hills, p8 (1993): social security makes up half of all welfare spending in UK). [...]

[...] Hills, J. (1993) The Future of Welfare A Guide to the Debate, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, York. Jessop B. (1996) Comparative Welfare Systems: The Scandinavia Model of Period Change, St. Martins, New York. Keaney, M. (2001) Economist with a Public Purpose Essays in Honour of John Kenneth Galbraith, Routledge, GB. Klein, R. (1993) O'Goffe's Tale, or What can we Learn From the Success of the Capitalist Welfare States?, in Jones, C. [...]

[...] Welfare policies are mainly concerned with the conflict over funds, thereby raising questions of the distribution of power in society. The poor for example, stake a claim on social expenses (such as income subsidies) and the monopolists, who often wield significant political clout, encourage more social investment like airports to increase profit opportunities. These competing claims over the state budget serve to further increase state spending. Thus fuelling the prediction that there is a tendency for government expenditure to outpace revenues. [...]

[...] The power and influence such groups wield over government spending are the main contribution of ‘O'Goffe's Tale'. Overcoming the elderly voting block and the considerable proportion of public spending they consume, for example, may be very difficult, regardless of the fiscal crisis the ageing population may bring about. Thankfully for us the dire prophesies of O'Goffe didn't come to pass, at least not it the west, perhaps if his analysis had been applied to the communist states they may not have fallen. [...]