What are the most significant long-term external trends that will affect the role of the EU in 2020 to 2050?

Résumé du document

By 2025, Europe will represent only 6% of the world population, and its relative share of global wealth and trade will have shrunk. Contentious economic and welfare reforms as well as the integration of a growing migrant population will be among the key internal challenges for many EU Member States. Based on current trends, the EU may also be surrounded by an increasingly turbulent neighborhood, from Russia to the Mediterranean and Africa. The ongoing debate on the future of Europe suffers from a lack of perspective on the global developments that are changing the context of European integration itself. Too often European integration is regarded as a regular process, advancing or stalling, depending on endogenous or intra-European variables only. Absorbed in endless debates on the reform of their political, economic and social structures, there is a risk that the EU and its member states may loose sight on the momentous developments taking place beyond their borders, yet affecting their own future. While Europe ponders its own future, the future of the world is in the making. The risk is that the Union and its Member States will be increasingly subject to, rather than actors of, change.

Extraits

[...] free trade," extraterritoriality, and the role of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in settling trade disputes. As East Asian economies--particularly China--grow, Europe will find its economic interests shifting toward that area. We anticipate growing trade and investment between these two regions Could Europe become a superpower? Will it run the 21st century? - need to undertake structural reforms to become a superpower According to the regional experts consulted, Europe's future international role depends greatly on whether it undertakes major structural economic and social reforms to deal with its aging work-force problem. [...]

[...] So more efforts will need to be made to deliver ‘global public goods' to those in need (access to health, education, and clean environment). In other words a viable long term security strategy must focus on prevention across the different dimensions of external relations and reflect the notion of comprehensive security traditionally upheld by the EU and outlined by the European Security Strategy. Global governance will be out under serious strain; the relationship between old and new powers will determine the future of global governance. A more interdependent and complex world generates challenges, which demand a coordinated response. [...]

[...] Our greatest concern is that terrorists might acquire biological agents or, less likely, a nuclear device, either of which could cause mass casualties. - Internal challenges: In 2025 the EU is still likely to be one of the safest and richest parts of the world. However in several areas current trends indicate that the EU might have difficulties maintaining its status (population ageing, industries offshore generating values outside the EU, competition in technologic areas, insecurity faced with globalisation, fear of European integration We can mention these internal challenges very briefly: - the need to renegotiate the social contract i.e., the entitlement programs of the social welfare state hammered out in the post-1945 period. [...]

[...] In the end, a Union with 450 million citizens—the largest trading bloc in the world, with a single currency, and the largest provider of development aid and humanitarian assistance cannot be denied a greater role in world affairs. It will be some time, however, before it speaks with a single voice. Meanwhile, the more it speaks with one voice, the greater the likelihood of leading the United States back to the path of multilateralism. [...]

[...] Serious potential flashpoints in these regions will remain, for example in the Taiwan Strait and on the Korean peninsula. The peace process between India and Pakistan has not yet resolved important differences between them. In Afghanistan, international involvement will be essential if the country is to continue its long recovery from civil war. The risks of instability in the Middle East will continue to be high, with the Israel/Palestine conflict at its heart and Iran's role in the region as growing factor. [...]