Conceptualizing the decision making to wage a war against Iraq

Résumé du document

A 1400-words essay in which we try to apply Graham Allison's decision model theory to the decision taken by the Bush's administration in 2003 to attack Iraq. This gives us the opportunity to point out that foreign policy decision are not always as rational as we believe. Many other factors actually influence the process of decision making like what Allison called the organizational process model and the bureaucratic politics.

Extraits

[...] Alaric Audard (2005934921) Short Seminar Paper due on Wednesday, 9th of November 2005 Decision Models Conceptualizing the decision making to wage a war against Iraq Graham Allison's decision models' theory has revolutionized the study of foreign policy. Before him, study of international relations was saturated with rational expectations inherited from the fields of economics. Under such a view, the actions of states are analyzed by assuming that nations consider all options and act rationally to maximize their utility”[1]. In response, Allison was one of the first one to assume that rational choice's theory was not the only one way through which a decision making process could and should be explained. [...]

[...] To conclude, decisions making are rarely rational, especially as foreign policy is concerned. A decision maker could sincerely pretend to follow rational choice's rules and even be convinced of using rationality, but actually most of the time he is not. Instead, he is likely to largely depend on organizational standard schemes as well as being the target of some pressure groups. Moreover, our sensibilities, preferences, expectations, all of this also affect the way we take a decision, what we put forward, what we put backside. [...]

[...] National security, one of the so-called rational goals defined by Allison was at stake. As national interest was concerned, the large Iraqi oil reserves could have also been considered as a rational objective. Actually, many other combined rational objectives could have been at stake here. That's why, according to J. Bendor and T. H. Hammond, we can say in a way that Allison's first model is too simple since it presumes that a rational actor could only have just one goal. [...]

[...] Allison, Conceptual models, p Ibid, p Douglas Jehl, “Report Warned Bush Team About Intelligence Suspicions”, in New York Times, 6/11/2005 G. T. Allison, Conceptual models, p Ibid, p Kegley, World Politics, p Ibid, p G. T. Allison, Conceptual models, p. [...]

[...] Allison, “Conceptual models and the Cuban missile crisis”, in The American Political Sciences Review, Vol No September 1969, pp Ibid, p Ibid, p.694 Michael Howard, The Causes of War and Other Essays, London : Temple Smith Charles W. Kegley and Eugene R. Wittkopf, World Politics: trends and Transformation Thomson and Wadsworth, p Ibid, p.71 G. T. Allison, Conceptual models, p J. Bendor and T. H. Hammond, “Rethinking Allison's models”, in The American Political Sciences Review, Vol No June 1992, p Kegley, World Politics, p G. T. [...]