Outlook for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination

Résumé du document

Even though George W. Bush won the presidential elections in the year 2007, the Grand Old Party was already agitated by the 2008 Presidential nomination and the question of its probable candidates. The XXIInd Amendment prevented the President from running a third time and his Vice-President, Dick Cheney, announced that he would not run in 2008 because of his old age and ill health. However, some observers considered him as a serious "dark horse "; an unexpected candidate who was capable of winning the nomination contest. Officially, at least, the Republicans did not have a ?natural' successor to George W. Bush and the nomination contest was thrown open to whomever within the Party. Some people had already declared that they would be candidates. Others had not officially said that, but their popularity and political situation made their candidacy very likely to be realized.

Extraits

[...] His defeat may prove that a Republican, in order to win important elections, might need to be seen as more independent from the current conservative administration. This trend could help the former contender of Bush, McCain, or a “liberal” Republican like Giuliani. Some observers also argue that Giuliani could take advantage of an alliance with Condoleeza Rice, which could allow him to balance his ticket (Tony Allen-Mills, October 10, 2005). Condoleeza Rice, as an African-American woman, can appear as the good candidate who could enable the GOP to “make history” (Tony Allen-Mills, October 10, 2005). [...]

[...] Bibliography -Dick Morris, Eileen McGann, Condi vs. Hillary: the Next Great Presidential Race, New York, ReganBooks Meet George One Day After Becoming The Insiders' Frontrunner”, The Hotline, National Journal's Daily Briefing On Politics, May http://nationaljournal.com -Christina Bellantoni, “Governor vital to Allen, Warner”, The Washington Times, November -Tony Allen-Mills, “Nervous Republicans wait for Rice to reveal her route to the White House”, The Sunday Times, October -Anne Gearan, “Some in GOP Hope Roce Runs for President”, Associated Press Online, July -Michael Sluss, “Poll favors Warner over Allen”, The Roanoke Times (Virginia), July -Richard Lowry, “Buckling His Chin Strap (George Allen For President)”, National Review, November -Spencer S. [...]

[...] In the Republican nomination process, party support can be decisive: it enabled George W. Bush to win the primaries in 2000 after having had some disappointing results in the first primaries. Rice might not run and her future depends a lot on the current Administration, which is not very popular at the moment. Finally, Allen seems to have the good profile to be the GOP candidate in 2008. Although this conservative Southern Senator is not very famous at the moment, he been anointed the most likely Republican presidential nominee in 2008 by 85 congressional Republicans and influential strategists polled by the insider National Journal magazine” (Luiza Ch. [...]

[...] Others must depend on events. She can shape them” (Dick Morris p.244). This author also adds that observers must be careful because her high popularity in the polls might not last three years. People who favor Rice's candidacy think she should spend more time within the US than in the Middle East or in Africa. Other likely candidates like George Allen have begun an active fundraising campaign by traveling across the national territory. They mainly focus on States such as Iowa or New Hampshire, where the early primaries usually take place. [...]

[...] On an unofficial website (www.rice2008.com), supporters can buy stickers saying: “Hillary'08? Not if Condi's Running!” McCain, on the other hand, has reactivated his Political Action Committee. This organization will raise money in order to support his potential candidacy. His PAC is called Straight Talk America and will help pay for McCain's travel when he gives speeches and allow him to contribute to candidates and party committees” (Will Lester, July 27, 2005). Nevertheless, all those candidacies are not official for the moment. [...]