To which extent is climate change contributing to violent conflict? The case of the reduction of water in the Middle East, precisely in the Gaza Strip

Résumé du document

Environmental issues will be examined in this paper with a focus on the critical examination of the extent to which climate change is contributing to violent conflict (and risks of violent conflict) in a region or sub-region. In the attempt to deal with the assumption that supposes the existence of a linkage between the climate change and the increase of conflicts, the development will be composed of two parts. Firstly, several views of authors who wrote on the question will be confronted. Among them, certain authors agreed with the fact that environmental degradation is likely to lead to conflicts. However, the conceptual framework which is needed to analyze this probable linkage is too weak, and the debate on security highlights this situation. Then, the stress will be mainly on the researches of authors who succeed to overtake these limits of the conceptual framework. Among others, Thomas Homer-Dixon and his research team are mentioned. Secondly, the problem of reduction of water in the Middle East, precisely in the Gaza Strip, will be analyzed in order to check if environmental changes are likely to contribute to violence. The aim is to highlight the possible process which leads to violence. However, before analyzing the case of the Gaza Strip, the concept of "environmental scarcity" which is helpful for the analysis will be clarified. In conclusion, an attempt to answer to the research question will be undertaken.

Extraits

[...] Let us now put a term to this analysis and try to answer to the question in the Conclusion part. Conclusion The question “Critically examine the extent to which climate change is contributing to violent conflict (and risks of violent conflict) in a region or sub-region of your choice” has been discussed in this paper. Let us recall briefly the different steps of this paper. In the first part, we saw how the question is a source of debate among scientists. [...]

[...] Nevertheless Hauge and Ellingsen remain reserved on different aspects of the work of Homer-Dixon. After tested hypothesis which was partially derived from the work of Homer-Dixon and the Toronto Group,[13] they find a linkage between environmental degradation and conflicts. In fact, . ] countries suffering from environmental degradation [ . ] are more prone to civil conflicts. However, economic factors are far more important in predicting domestic armed conflict than are environmental factors. In general, this also holds true of political factors. [...]

[...] In brief and in order to try to answer to our main question, climate change is contributing to violent conflict, but in interaction with others variables as suggested by the definition of environmental scarcity of Thomas Homer- Dixon. At the end of this analysis, it is, however, necessary to point that this question requires more research and data as it has been highlighted throughout this paper by the majority of researchers in order to confirm the these latest discoveries . [...]

[...] According to Lonergan there is a possibility that ] the greatest concern with respect to water scarcity is in the Middle East and Africa. By 2025, forty countries in these regions are expected to experience water stress or water scarcity [ Moreover, water is one of the major political issues in the Middle East and has an important role in the various peace agreements that have been proposed or signed in recent years[40]. This point of view is shared by numerous authors such as Kelly and Homer-Dixon[41] or as Marwan Haddad and Numan Mizyed.[42] Let us give more attention to the case of the Gaza strip which is since 1967 ] sapped by further years of strain on limited resources [ ] [and] has become most horrifying case of [ ] in the notoriously water-scarce Middle East region.”[43] According to Kelly and Homer-Dixon the political, economical and ecological conditions have to be considered in order to understand the critical and violent atmosphere in Gaza as well as in the global Middle East. [...]

[...] In fact, Homer-Dixon and his team identified several types of possible environmental causes which are supposed to lead to violence; the problem of scarcity water is one of them. Homer-Dixon, Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: evidence from cases, International Security, Vol No pp 5-40. Available from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2539147, accessed : 24/04/2008. p Homer-Dixon, Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: evidence from cases. p It is in this perspective that Larbi Bouguerra remembers us that the words for river and rivalry have the same Latin root. [...]