The will for democracy in Hong Kong: does it dismiss the modernization theory model?

Résumé du document

According to the modernization theory, the better the economical situation of a country is, the more likely a country is to adopt a democratic political regime. Indeed, according to Samuel Huntington, the economical growth may lead to the rise of the importance of middle-class and of their education, to the development of mass-media which will foster pro-democracy political forces and lead to a mass movement toward democracy. In Asia this scheme has been relevant in the cases of Taiwan or South Korea, which belong, as Hong Kong does to the group of the "Asian Dragons?. However, the situation in Hong Kong seems to challenge this assertion. Although Hong Kong is known as one of the highest GDP growth rates in the world during the last 30 years-in 2007 with a GDP per capita of 37 000 US Dollars Hong Kong ranked as 14th out of 200 countries , it has not taken the path to democracy, and more surprisingly there seems to be no strong will for democracy among the people in Hong Kong.

Extraits

[...] Because of its former status as a British Colony, Hong Kong people did not have a great interest in their country's government as they did not have their say in the decision- making process. With the handover to China, this feeling has not completely vanished. In fact, historically, the development of a more participatory political culture just goes back to the beginning of the 1990's[8] notably after the massive demonstrations in reaction of the Tiananmen incidents. Therefore, political participation is a rather new phenomenon in Hong Kong, which has expressed itself in a limited number of occasions, and it is not entrenched yet in the political culture of the population. [...]

[...] The lack of connection between both is one of the key elements of the supposed political apathy of Hong Kong people. The pan-democrats have proved unable to understand the particular needs and political culture of Hong Kong people and to organise their parties so that they could reach them, convince them to embrace the same goals and mobilize them to fight for democracy. Moreover, the media coverage of the democratic meetings or any other pro-democratic forces activities is very low therefore is useless in raising the democratic awareness of the population. [...]

[...] To put it in a nutshell the Hong Kong people are now quite confident with the Beijing government and toward the actual political institutions of Hong Kong: in February declared they trusted it that they were confident in Hong Kong's future in the country, two systems” organization.[17]. Moreover, Hong Kong people might be scared that pressurizing Beijing for democracy may make China angry, which could be detrimental for Hong Kong's economy since the economic integration of Hong Kong with China is more and more important. [...]

[...] The will for democracy in Hong Kong: does it dismiss the modernization theory model? According to the modernization theory, the better the economical situation of a country is, the more likely this country is to adopt a democratic political regime. Indeed, according to Samuel Huntington, the economical growth may lead to the rise of the importance of middle-class and of their education, to the development of mass-media which will foster pro-democracy political forces and lead to a mass movement toward democracy. [...]

[...] A poll conducted by the Chinese University's Institute for Asia-Pacific studies have found that although 53% of the respondents indicated that their first preference was to get democracy for 2012, they were 72% to either accept or totally accept this statement and more surprisingly said they did not support the action of certain groups which still insist on universal suffrage for both Chief Executive and the Legislative Council by 2012. Although Hong Kong people seem to be willing to get democracy and seem in majority in favour of the introduction of universal suffrage as soon as possible, they are likely to renounce to get it if the Beijing government vetoes it. In other words, the support of Hong Kong people toward democracy is not deeply-rooted neither it is institutionalized in the society's values, on the contrary, this support seems rather fluctuant. [...]