Egypt and nuclear proliferation : oil and gas in the Middle East and North Africa

Résumé du document

This assignment is based on an article published in the Middle East Economic Survey at the end of December last, entitled 'North Africa Nuclear Plans'. Considering the particular situation of Egypt, it outlines the incentives for this country to pursue a nuclear power program. Egypt is a developing country, with a particular geographic and geopolitical situation. Egyptian demand for power has continued to rise rapidly as a result of demographic and economic growth. The shortcomings of hydroelectric power, which used to provide more than 25% of Egypt's electricity, were highlighted in 1988 during the water crisis, that followed eight years of drought in the catchment areas of the River Nile. In response, the government launched a crash program to build power stations that would depend on locally produced natural gas, with the additional bonus that oil would be saved for export. All oil-fired power stations have now been converted to run on natural gas as their primary fuel. The Ministry of Electricity and Energy is implementing plans to bring on stream new power generating capacity over the next ten years. Nuclear plans in the 1980s, including a nuclear power station at Al Dabaa, were shelved owing to cost and safety considerations.

Extraits

[...] Nowadays, nuclear technology is available at a geopolitical price. European governments want to export their technology in order to develop their nuclear industry, bringing production costs down over the next decades. Moreover, Egypt can benefit from the willingness of Europe to cooperate more with a country that is historically tied up with the US. Also, Cairo and Beijing have already agreed to co-operate on the development of a civilian nuclear power program in Egypt.[9] Other countries in the region aim for the technology. [...]

[...] A more secure and ecological choice Pursuing a nuclear power program would bring to Egypt an energetic security situation, in comparison to oil and gas depletion and fluctuations. It would allow Egypt to preserve its reserves, to diversify its energy sources, and to reduce its CO2 emissions - only if the program is well conducted and provides an environmental control. Conclusion As a conclusion, Egypt's policymakers are convinced that domestic fossil fuel supplies cannot sustain Egyptian economic development. In the long run, nuclear is the most feasible option. [...]

[...] A civilian nuclear program costs Concerns over energy security, surging fossil-fuel prices and rising CO2 emissions have revived discussions about the role of nuclear power. As to define it, nuclear power is proven technology for large-scale baseload electricity generation that can reduce dependence on imported gas and CO2 emissions”.[6] If launching a nuclear program seems to be very expensive at the beginning, as one needs to give the necessary security conditions for it to be viable), in the long term, such program is clearly benefic, especially given the fact that Egypt had already started then suspended its nuclear program in the early 1980s. [...]

[...] Even when Egypt can no longer export oil and gas, it can export electricity. And given the political situation in the Middle East, countries that cannot develop nuclear power would be able to import nuclear-generated electricity from Egypt. The Egyptian electricity sector Electricity is fundamental to a modern economy. In developing economies there is enormous pent up demand for the service it can provide? In Egypt, electricity generation will double, from 92 TWh in 2003 to 188 TWh in 2030. [...]

[...] Egypt, World Energy Outlook 2005, International Energy Agency Cf. and gas in the capitals”, by Alhajji, A. F., World Oil, December 2007, Vol Issue 12. Cf. Chapter 10. Egypt, World Energy Outlook 2005, International Energy Agency Cf. “Nuclear Necessity”, Business Middle East October; 16th-31st 2006. Cf. Chapter 13. Prospects for Nuclear Power, World Energy Outlook 2006, OECD/IEA Idem. [...]