Conflict assessment report: Lebanon

Résumé du document

With its unique geographic location at the crossroads of three continents, Lebanon has always been a passageway to many different peoples and cultures. The coexistence of a dozen and a half of different religions in such a tiny territory has been a model for diversity. However, this diversity has also partly resulted in devastating civil wars throughout the modern history of Lebanon, from which a system of political sectarianism has emerged and the current system is in crisis. For 15 years after the end of the civil war, Lebanon sought to rebuild itself, but the recent changes in the international, regional, and national arena have broken the fragile equilibrium on which Lebanon had been surviving. New political forces have emerged, such as the Hizbullah, and the demographics have changed. Syria and Israel have withdrawn their troops, and social and economic factors have become politicized issues with religion.

Extraits

[...] B Root causes 1. The imbalance of the Taëf Agreement In 1990, all the Lebanese parties met in Taëf to put an end to the civil war thanks to a reform of the constitutional processes that allowed for a more accurate representation of the Muslims in the political system.[22] The main achievement of Taëf was that it gave equal powers to each member of the troika, which was supposed to ensure a fair representation of the interests of the Christians, Sunnites and Shi'a. [...]

[...] However, economic policies have not been effective at curbing public debt and expenditures, and repeated political and security instability have hindered growth and economic activity. Lebanon is going through a major economic crisis. In 2006, the GDP growth rate was and the public debt amounted to 209% of a GDP of less than $20 billion.[12] The economic situation was further undermined by the war of July 2006 with Israel that resulted in estimated $ 3.6 billion damages in infrastructures. Lebanon is therefore heavily dependent on foreign aid: it has received more than billion pledges in grants and concessional loans at the latest Paris III donor's conference in January 2007, in return for a series of fiscal and structural reforms.[13] Social crisis The economic situation is reflected in the negative social indicators. [...]

[...] This is a sensitive issue on which even France has not taken a clear position, since Hizbullah is considered by many Lebanese not as a militia but as a national liberation and legitimate resistance movement. The Israeli withdrawal in 2000 has slightly undermined this argument, although Hizbullah claims that a few acres of Lebanese soil are still occupied by Israel in the Shebaa Farm sector. However, the war of July-August 2006 has allowed Hizbullah to claim a new role in Lebanese public affairs as a “national defense movement.”[29] 3. [...]

[...] Part Analysis of the conflict A Background situation: Lebanon's fragile equilibrium 1. History[1] The history of Lebanon is that of a constant tension within its religious communities and with its neighbors since its independence in 1943. Over the next 6 decades, Lebanon has been invaded and occupied several times by Israel and Syria, and has also been a refuge for hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees November 1943: Lebanon becomes an independent country after the collapse of the French Mandate 13 April 1975: A bus attack triggers a 15-year civil war after months of religious and political tensions March 1978: Israel invades Southern Lebanon to protect its northern border. [...]

[...] They believe that UNIFIL provides a symbolic presence on the ground and positive psychological effects on the civilian population, but that it is incapable of being an interposition force between Hizbullah and Israel. Naim, Mouna. La fracture entre Chiites et Sunnites. In Le Monde February 2007. Naim, op. cit. Khoder, Patricia. Ignoble provocation: les corps mutilés de deux jeunes gens retrouvés à Jadra. in L'Orient-Le Jour April 2007. [...]