The Future of Asia: Is Maintaining the Balance Synonym of Avoiding the Conflict?

Résumé du document

Asia appears to host the future nerve centers for international economics and politics'. To what extent is this popular vision accurate? Does Asia even have the awareness of constituting a bloc, or is this concept completely Western? Is Asia condemned to endure Chinese power, or can things turn out differently? Indeed, we will see that trans-national and regional movements have endorsed the development of nationalism and bellicism, that are paradoxically tampered by national interests.

Extraits

[...] Asia's prosperity gave birth to a passion for economics that is now perceived as inseparable from the nationalist passion: the financial strengthening of countries plagued by past humiliations and vengeful memories has fueled their demands for recognition, especially towards the Western world. Tourists are accused of organizing sexual tourism, bringing AIDS to Asia and maintaining narcotraffics alive. Xenophobia is extremely vivid in Asia, partly due to the above-mentioned transnational movements that are exploited by States to establish their legitimacy and authority. [...]

[...] The case of Taiwan is more difficult: though the Taiwanese recently elected an openly pro-rapprochement president, Taipei is still the target of Chinese nationalism. It seems less and less certain that the United States would stand for their ally in case of invasion, and might sacrifice their friendship for the sake of good relations with a China. The scenario of a Hong-Kong-type absorption therefore appears as a possibility that should not be ignored. These two cases underline quite substantially the crucial role of the American diplomacy: at a point, it will have to choose between the traditional Washington-Tokyo-Taipei-Seoul axis, and the maintenance of cordial relations with Beijing. [...]

[...] This competition for resources is doubled by the one that aims at controlling shipping lanes, since Asian powers rely heavily on their merchant fleets. This situation explains the worrying conflict concerning the Spratly Islands, rich in oil and gas resources, that gathers almost all the regional powers[2] A Responsible and Mature Asia: Figment or Reality? The logical extension of nationalism being arms race, a significant increase in military expenditures has been witnessed in Asia, Japan's defense budget having almost tripled between 1990 and 2005: and nowadays, Asia is the world's second market for arms trade. [...]

[...] The Future of Asia: Is Maintaining the Balance Synonym of Avoiding the Conflict? Introduction In comparison with Europe former imperial powers now dedicated to peacefully sharpen their democracies and wealth and the United States current ruler of the world, yet harshly criticized in a environment without credible counterparts Asia appears to host the future nerve centers of international economics and politics. To which extent is this popular vision accurate? Does Asia even have the awareness of constituting a bloc, or is this concept completely Western-centric? [...]

[...] Clearly, the end of Cold War has increased the independence of Asian States that legitimate their existence via expressions of nationalism and autonomy. Traditionally, those famous “transnational” actors are very much interconnected with public authorities: States maintain a firm hand over their societies, and all these economic wild imaginings are, above all, strategic moves. Let us not forget that Second World War and “Indochinese wars” are still sources of great tensions between Asian States: Japan has never recognized the crimes committed by its military. [...]