Worldwide threat assessment of the French Directorate-General for External Security

Résumé du document

- The year 2018 has been a really eventful year with unexpected changes in terms of international affairs and regional complexity.
- The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has been a game changer, discombobulating the international order as his predecessor left it.
- Non-state actors are acquiring the same means as state actors in order to model the world as they want.
- Regional tensions have been exacerbated, especially in south-east Asia and the Middle East, where the various actions of POTUS have not been well received.
- The terrorist groups are still thriving in the Sahel region, taking advantage of low state control and capacity.
- The conflicts in the Middle East and in northern Africa will still feed a massive stream of immigration, beefing up nationalists and populist feelings in Eastern Europe, jeopardizing the collaboration between member states of the EU.
- Climate change and pollution will soon be a massive global public health issue that only state will be able to tackle, if they don't fall into denial of this matter, increasing the migration flows and the risk of pandemic with massive amount of human displacement.
- The pollution will start to affect quite seriously our society as the air will become less and less breathable, and as a consequence, people in capital cities will start to develop illness.

Extraits

[...] - The US response is also an excuse for greater tensions between the US, Russia and China. - We assess that ISIS is also in possession of CW, since a French chemical expert has been enrolled in their ranks and some mustard sulfur attacks were registered, meaning they have both the knowhow and the capacities to develop such warfare. H. Cybersecurity As the cyberspace is developing and its regulations are still not accomplished, state and non-state actors are taking advantage of it, intruding inside foreign country networks, for hacking, monitoring or stealing information purposes. [...]

[...] Worldwide threat assessment of the French Directorate General for External Security (DGSE) Foreword - The year 2018 has been a really eventful year with unexpected changes in terms of international affairs and regional complexity. - The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has been a game changer, discombobulating the international order as his predecessor left it. - Non-state actors are acquiring the same means as state actors in order to model the world as they want. [...]

[...] International terrorism - French nationals are both the victims of targeted acts of terror and collateral damages. - If nationals are quite few in the Levant, our troops are often targeted in the Sahel region, which has a huge impact both domestically on the public opinion and in the country of the Overseas Operation, since it boasts Boko Haram's propaganda. - AQMI is also a major threat, since it commits acts of terror in northern Africa, and notably in touristic places such as hotels, restaurants, beaches, mostly in North Africa and in south-east Asia. [...]

[...] - This unprecedented number of illegal immigrants creates serious threat to the population with drugs and human trafficking, gangs of wild children in the street, rising the crime rate and most importantly, pandemic issues, since the bubonic plague is still active in Madagascar and some victims also died in the Comoros. - Illegal immigration is also a threat in French Guyana, which shares a border with both Surinam and Brazil. Where 70.000 out of the 217.000 residents of French Guyana are of Surinamese origin. [...]

[...] - Piracy and terrorism are also threatening the region and French nationals could be put in danger indirectly. - The increasing tensions between China and India are to be monitored, even though a direct conflict couldn't break out. - The nuclear capacities of India and Pakistan are a direct threat to the world order since both countries have a very reactive doctrine in terms of nuclear deterrence. - The seventh fleet of the US Navy is also bringing tensions with China since the US do not recognize China's sovereignty over the islands in the South China Sea. [...]