A monetary Union in East Asia?

Résumé du document

We will first try to understand the reasons why Asia needs monetary cooperation and the problems it will encounter. Then we will take a look at the current areas of discussions and the various schemes of cooperation. Finally we will analyze the alternatives available that might emerge in the future.

Extraits

[...] Finally, monetary union or monetary integration is the highest integrated form of monetary cooperation, which involves a common currency, common fiscal policies, and common foreign exchange arrangements in the region. The European Monetary Union is an example of monetary union. Rose, Andrew, Is there a case for an Asian Monetary Fund ? FRBSF Economic letter, No 99- December 1999 Matsushita, executive director of the Bank of Japan, said that Asian nations need to increase regional monetary cooperation to fend off external risks and maintain regional financial stability. [...]

[...] It lacks a Jean Monet to speak for regional integration. In part this reflects the ideological distance between China's communist government and market-oriented regimes elsewhere in East Asia. The idea of a centralized state with a monopoly of force that regiments its citizens through the superimposition of a common set of institutions is a European conception, not an Asian one[3]. Asian civil society is structured by ritual, ceremony, and economic networks as much as by force and law. Moreover, cultural issues are often supplemented by power politics which, according to Kahler, is the major reason why Asian formal integration has until now failed Consequently, integrationist initiatives in Asia have proceeded not through the creation of strong supranational institutions but by establishing loose networks of cooperation. [...]

[...] A regional financial cooperative scheme such as the CMI could be structured to complement the IMF in various ways. First, a regional facility could provide resources in addition to that provided by the IMF while joining forces to work on matters related to the prevention and management of financial crises. Second, it could also support the work of the IMF by monitoring economic developments in the region and taking part in the IMF's global surveillance activities. Moreover, there is no evidence that an East Asian financial arrangement will be oriented towards a withdrawal from the global economy and, hence, erect barriers to global financial integration. [...]

[...] It would help detect any macroeconomic or financial problem. The institutional level of the Chiang Mai initiative has largely been left undiscussed. Efforts are being made to establish early warning systems and to monitor short-term capital flows; efforts are moreover being made to establish a decision-making body for the CMI. The CMI laid the foundation for an enhanced monetary and financial cooperation in the region. But questions of formal integration and institutionalization will have to be discussed in the future. [...]

[...] An Asia monetary union is at best a very distant prospect. Looking at monetary and financial cooperation in Asia, we will have to consider both the current development as well as the future prospects of cooperation or integration. Therefore, I will first try to explain the reasons why Asia needs this monetary cooperation as well as the difficulties it will encounter; then I will look at the current areas of discussions and at the different developing schemes of cooperation; finally I will analyze the various alternatives that might emerge in the future and their relevance for the Asian region. [...]