The Iranian Issue: The emergence of a main potential threat for the international security

Résumé du document

The Iranian regime appears to be one of the main present sources of threat for the international order and security. The nuclear programme that has been undertaken by its president Ahmadinezhad is raising strong tensions between this country and the main part of the rest of the world, even though its purposes are officially civil. However, the nuclear issue can't be isolated from the role Iran plays in the Middle-East which can be said to be subversive for the stability of the region from many aspects.
The Iranian issue is thus very interesting to analyze for International Relations' analysts and students as it is multidimensional, complex, and connected with different kinds of security threats (Sunni/Shi'I rivalry, energetic security, Islamic terrorism, nuclear proliferation, etc.). It makes possible the implementation of IR theories to empirical events, to a concrete reality. This security issue combines traditional security aspects —nuclear non-proliferation, state as a referent object of international security, balance of power, challenge of collective security— and contemporary ones —global terrorism. The aim of this paper is to analyse and explain why Iran appears to be a real and major potential threat for the international order and security. Such a purpose implies first to focus on Iran's history and political regime since its present international behaviour can't be separated from its historical legacy and from the ideology of the regime, even though Realists contest the importance of such matters on states' foreign policy. Then, a presentation of Iran's role, actions, rivals and interests within the Middle East will have to be made, showing that the nuclear programme is only one element of the multidimensional aspects of the Iranian issue. Finally, the danger for the international security of Iran's nuclear ambitions will have to be discussed.

Extraits

[...] (2003). Officials say Israel will destroy Natanz plant if Iran operates it. Nucleonic Weeks. Retrieved July from http://www.tau.ac.il/jcss/nw0307.doc. Krause, J., (2006). The new nuclear threats, The Journal of the German Council on Foreign Relations, Internationale Politik, 86/06, 2-17. Waltz, K. (1981). The spread of nuclear weapons: More may be better, IISS Adelphi Paper pages unknown. Iraqi President Meets with the Leader. [...]

[...] Tense relations with Israel and links with Hezbollah However, the country that would suffer the most from a more powerful Iran is obviously Israel. This country is indeed considered by Iran to be, with the US, the “main enemy of the Iranian nation”, according to the expression of Khamene'i. This country regularly suffers from Ahmadinezhad's verbal attacks and provocations. He indeed publicly denied the veracity of the Holocaust, calling it a organized in 2006 a conference discussing its existence and called for the destruction of Israel (Bozorghmehr, para 2005). [...]

[...] As a consequence, Iran is seen by the US and by pro-US Muslim-populated Regimes of the Middle-East Sunni– as a threat for the regional order. They fear that a Shi'I bloc could emerge, from Iran to Lebanon, making of Iran the main power of the Middle-East. Indeed, Iran recently consolidated its ties with Syria (Ganji, 2006) and tries to extend its influence over Iraq. This tension was visible, for example, when the Arab League organized a reconciliation conference of Iraqi groups in 2005. [...]

[...] The recent discussion that gathered Iranian and American officials about Iraqi internal problems can be seen as a sign of appeasement but this isn't enough to adopt an optimistic view on the future of the “Iranian issue”. References Blomfield, A. (2006). Israel humbled by arms from Iran. Telegraph. Retrieved August from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/15/wmid15.xml Bozorghmehr, S. (2005). Annan: 'Dismay' over Iranian comments on Israel. CNN. Retrieved October from http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/meast/10/27/ahmadinejad.reaction/ Ciment, J., & Hill, K., (Ed.). [...]

[...] 15) Tension is also visible between Iran and Turkey as in January 2006 Iran “reduced its supply of gas to Turkey without warning” (Ganji p. to exert economic pressure on Turkey that entirely supports the US position towards the Iranian nuclear programme. This episode reminds us that regional tensions are closely connected with the nuclear ambitions of Iran and with the energetic issue. An extension of Iran's influence on Iraq would put an important part of the World energetic resources under the direct or indirect control of Iran, and thus, create insecurity in states' oil supplying. [...]