Decision Making: Will the US Attack Iran?

Résumé du document

Iran has always been a major concern in United States foreign policy. With almost seventy million inhabitants, three times the population of Iraq, the former Persia is a key actor in the Middle East. The diplomatic relations between America and Iran have fluctuated according to regime changes. The United States backed the anti-communist Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled Iran from 1941 to 1979. They saw him as a "bulwark against the expansion of Soviet influence in the Persian Gulf" (Katzman). When the Shah government collapsed in February 1979, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini declared an Islamic Republic of Iran. The tensions between the new anti-West leader and the United States worsened dramatically with the Iran hostage crisis, from November 4, 1979 to January 20, 1981.

Extraits

[...] For him, the problem is the Iranian reaction. The Shiite-dominated government in Iraq has developed closer ties with Iran. The war in Iran could open the “specter of Shiite militias entering the fight against US troops in Iraq” (Broder). There are today about 150,000 American soldiers in Iraq. Nevertheless, according to the scholar Fareed Zakaria, a properly handled Iranian crisis could improve the situation in Iraq. If an Iranian nuclear program is perceived as a threat for national security in Iraq, the Iraqis will support the United States. [...]

[...] Porter Goss said that the CIA would need at least five years to restructure its network (Lesnes), and it could worsen in this context of justification of the Iraq War. Therefore, the U.S. intelligence does not and does not want to exert a strong influence on the decision-making in the Iranian case. The Growing Influence of Condoleezza Rice One month ago, Secretary of State C. Rice presented her new policy: “transformational diplomacy”. Her shift from realism to a form of liberalism was called “neo-realism” by The Wall Street Journal (King and Solomon). [...]

[...] L'administration Bush face aux fuites et critiques sur la guerre en Irak et l'ouragan Katrina [Bush Administration Facing Leak and Criticism on the War in Iraq and the Katrina Hurricane], Le Monde February 2006. Linzer, Dafna. “Strong Leads and Dead Ends in Nuclear Case Against The Washington Post, February A01. Loven, Jennifer. “Bush Reveals Rationale Behind Surveillance”, Associated Press Online February 2006. Shelby, David. “State Department: World Must Be Firm on Iran Nuclear Issue, US Official US Fed News Service, Including US State News, Washington, D.C February 2006. U.S. Department of State. [...]

[...] Decision Making: Will the US Attack Iran? Iran has always been a major concern in United States foreign policy. With almost seventy million inhabitants, three times the population of Iraq, the former Persia is a key actor in the Middle East. The diplomatic relations between America and Iran have fluctuated according to regime changes. The United States backed the anti-communist Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who ruled Iran from 1941 to 1979. They saw him as a “bulwark against the expansion of Soviet influence in the Persian Gulf” (Katzman). [...]

[...] He declared that he gave priority to diplomacy although the military option is not the table” about Iran. He is torn between his pro-Israel policy and the diplomatic strategy of Condoleezza Rice, but the political in-fight of Mrs. Rice has gained the upper hand so far. President Bush seems to be more engaged into diplomacy than the preparation of an air strike. If the Commander in Chief keeps this position, his administration will have to follow no matter its opinion. decision 27-3 (Anderson and Kessler). [...]