To what degree does the evidence of contemporary cross-strait relations support the view that Taiwan and Mainland China are experiencing not only economic but also political convergence?

Résumé du document

In 1949, after having lost the Chinese Civil War against the CPC, the Kuomintang retreated from Mainland China and established a government in Taipei, the largest city of the Taiwan Island, while continuing to claim its sovereignty over the whole China. At the same time, the People's Republic of China, created by the communists, started treating the Republic of China as a renegade and considering Taiwan as a legitimate part of their sovereignty.
From this period and until the 1990S, two different entities, ruled by different government faced each other, claiming that they were the legitimate governors of China. But with the international recognition of the PRC and after a democratisation of the regime, the ROC government stopped fighting for being sovereign over China and started claiming for recognition of its own legitimacy. Since the 1980's, a "status quo" about the Taiwanese situation has been maintained, not only by Taiwan but also by the PRC and the United States, involved in the Mainland- Taiwan relations as a mediator, because of all the economic and geopolitical implications an escalation of the conflict could generate. Actually, the losses for both sides would be enormous, partly due to the degree of economic interdependence linking the PRC and the ROC. The question is here to know if Mainland China and Taiwan are experiencing political convergence. Is a reunification possible in the future? Are there similar points in both sides views of the situation and could one model influence another? Could the economic and cultural cross strait links be a way of reaching a political agreement?

Extraits

[...] According to this theory, the nature of international relations depends on the historical circumstances This theory will allow us to understand better the evolution of the cross strait relations and to analyse if we can speak about a form of political convergence between mainland China and Taiwan coming from changes in the practices of their relations. Actually, we will first see that Mainland China and Taiwan interactions are mostly conflictual and that there are experiencing antagonistic identities and interests which constitutes an obstacle to political convergence. [...]

[...] Sutter, China's Rise in Asia, Promises and Perils (Oxford: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 2005), p215 21) J P Cabestan, Recrudescence de tension d'Etat à Etat dans le détroit de Formose La nouvelle approche taiwanaise de ses relations avec la Chine populaire et ses répercussions http://www.cefc.com.hk/fr 22) International Crisis group, “China and Taiwan, uneasy détente”, Asia Briefing Seoul, Brussels sept 2005, http://www.ciaonet.org/srchfrm.html 23) Ibid 24) Robert G. [...]

[...] And the US pressure for harmonious relations deepen this obligation for a bit of negotiation. Actually, the three no policy launched in 1998, no support for independence, no support for two Chinas and no support for the entrance of Taiwan in an international organisation reserved for states and the American pressure on president Chen for him not to provoke conflict by adopting a separatist agenda are reason for the two sides for trying to improve their relations(20). Besides, in 1991 the two sides established quasi official organisations authorised to negotiate to resolve problems arising in people to people relations across the strait: the strait exchange foundation (Taiwan) and the association for relation across the Taiwan strait(China) which represents a real change in the two states practices toward each other. [...]

[...] Sutter, China's Rise in Asia, Promises and Perils (Oxford: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 2005), pp. 211-212 14) Ralph N. Clough, Cooperation or conflict in the Taiwan strait (Oxford: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 1999), preface 15) Ibid 16) Robert G. Sutter, China's Rise in Asia, Promises and Perils (Oxford: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 2005), p 17) Congressional Research service, http://www.ciaonet.org/srchfrm.html 18) D G Brown, missed opportunities cooperative connections, http://www.ciaonet.org/srchfrm.html 19) Ralph N. Clough, Cooperation or conflict in the Taiwan strait (Oxford: Rowman and Littlefield publishers, 1999), pp 20) Robert G. [...]

[...] All these estimations show to what extend the two sides of the strait are linked and dependant which constitutes a hope for reaching a political agreement. To this situation, we can add that pressures from everywhere are made to improve the cross strait relations. Actually, in 2005, a substantial reduction of the tensions between Beijing and Chen shui bianhas been felt(18). The defeat of the DPP at the legislatives elections of December 2004 and the reinvigorated political position of the KMT forced Chen to moderate his position. [...]