International politics of climate change: Can climate change represent a threat for international security? How?

Résumé du document

While science and economics dominate the ongoing United Nations climate change program, new reports warn of other serious consequences of global warming. In May 2007, the Democrats in the United States fought for a ruling that would require intelligence agencies to produce a document demonstrating the impact of climate change on America's national defense. Democrats argued that large-scale crisis caused by global warming (pandemics, famine, sea-level rise, etc.) will affect how and where American military resources will be used in the next few decades. The whole world will face environmentally-induced security risks. In this context, I would like to show that climate change not only threatens the economy and the political stability of developing countries by causing droughts, floods or natural disasters, but also poses serious security risks for developed country, as they will have to face massive immigration waves as a consequence.

Extraits

[...] Conflicts over remaining resources and migration will lead to instability in a geographical zone that is an important economic partner of Europe with factors of production located along vulnerable coastlines. Central Asia is another area severely affected by climate change. An increasing scarcity of water, which is both a key resource for agriculture and a strategic resource for energy supply, is a hazard for local economy and political stability. Finally, the melting of the polar ice caps in the Arctic opens new waterways and international trade routes, which enhances the need for international regulation and negotiation. B. [...]

[...] In order to tackle climate change and its negative consequences for international security, countries must develop international and regional co-operation, invest in crop research, infrastructures (water systems, etc.) and technologies. I. Several environmentally-induced security risks leading to worldwide destabilization and radicalization On the one hand, the decreases in food production, the degradation of freshwaters and the increase of the intensity and the frequency of natural disasters will lead to massive worldwide migration and political destabilization in vulnerable states. On the other hand, the tensions over energy supplies also represent a serious threat for international security. A. [...]

[...] What's more, the specific situation of the oil exporting countries in the Middle East appears as another obstacle to global energy security. Water systems in the Middle East are already under intense stress and two thirds of the Arab world depends on foreign sources for water. The Jordan and Yarmuk rivers are likely to see considerable reduction in their flows affecting Israel, the Palestinian territories and Jordan. Existing tensions over access to water will intensify in this region, leading to further political instability, which is a hazard for Europe's energy security. [...]

[...] Firstly, the decline of food production may trigger new tensions in some parts of the world and destabilize fragile regimes. Moreover, U.S. and Europe may experience mounting pressure to accept large numbers of immigrant and refugee populations as drought increases and food production declines in Latin America and Africa”, said a report produced by retired U.S. senior military officers[2]. Secondly, the degradation of freshwaters will aggravate existing tensions in arid zones. In the Middle East, for example, “existing tensions over access to water are almost certain to intensify . [...]

[...] In September 2007, the EU proposed to create a Global Climate Change Alliance (GCCA) that would integrate climate change into poverty reduction strategies. Assistance provided by the GCCA should focus on five areas: “implementing concrete adaptation measures; reducing emissions from deforestation; helping poor countries take advantage from the global carbon market; helping poor countries to be better prepared for natural disasters, and integrating climate change into development cooperation and poverty reduction strategies”[12]. In this perspective, a report drafted by the IFPRI said “responses to climate change need to occur on several levels, including crop and farm-level adaptations, national-level agriculture- related policies and investments, and regional and global policies and investments. [...]