China : a power in transition

Résumé du document

Deng Xiaoping's death on February , 1997, left China without the " father " of the evolution it had been following since 1978. . Though he was a survivor of the Long March, he repelled a lot of Mao Zedong's inheritance and introduced his country to what is certainly the single most fundamental period of change in its recent history. Indeed, the People's Republic of China is both moving from a " socialist ", autarkic development model to a free-market one and acquiring the status of big power it had long been denied. No doubt, the irruption of 1.3 billion Chinese on the international stage will be one of the major concerns of the early XXIst century. And China can not be limited to the PRC : Taiwan, Hong Kong (to be returned to the mainland on July 3, this year) and even Singapore (75 % ethnic Chinese) are also part of the Chinese world.
How will China and its partners cope with the tremendous changes at work (and with die-hard permanencies from Imperial China) in Chinese economy, society and even mentalities which all have consequences for Chinese power ?
China's economic surge (although not stainless) is making a real power of it, but many uncertainties remain as for its integration in the "world community".

Extraits

[...] The PRC has also started to improve its armed forces. Many observers have noticed what could easily be perceived as an attempt to reach military superiority over its neighbours. The purchase of modern Russian weapons 27 and MiG-29 jet fighters, various missiles), the attempt to modernise the Navy and make it a real " blue sea " one by purchasing aircraft carriers and more generally the surge in military expenses in 1995 - twice the inflation rate). But it seems many fears are exaggerated. [...]

[...] Trade between Xinjiang (see map) and the neighbouring States experienced a threefold increase between 1991 and 1992, and these economic links could well transform into political ones - as long as Russia tolerates such interference in its " near abroad But for the moment, increased co-operation, even on a military level (for instance Russia's approval to the sale of Su-27 jet fighters at a very favourable price), progress in the settlement of old territorial disputes in the Siberian Far East and above all a common interest in the stability of the region have led to quasi-co-operation. For example, the PRC now approves of Russian military defence of Tadjikistan against the Mujaheedin. Economic integration with the closest parts of South Korea in the Tumen delta is also well underway. [...]

[...] As a result, bribery is supposed to be huge (unofficial incomes of high officials could be equivalent to one quarter of GDP) , and family affairs or employee reprisals against downsizing (which can go as far as murder) complicate a lot the task of entrepreneurs --especially foreign ones. This explains why, when considering FDI per head, China is far below Malaysia vs $ 226) or even Chile, Mexico and Hungary. Of course, many Asian countries rely on such mixed systems (capitalism strongly “corrected“ by the State and traditional solidarity networks), but it seems the Mainland Chinese one is far from being the most efficient. But China's success is not only somehow overstated. [...]

[...] Studying the PRC's opening on the world reveals how much domestic and international issues are linked, and Germany's and Japan's XXth century history would incite to watch both with peculiar attention. It also makes it more necessary to evaluate what kind of impact economic power and cultural influence (here through the network of the Diaspora Chinese) may have on the role of a State, especially when the State in question is as big as China. Bibliography WILSON D. China : the big tiger, Little-Brown 1997 DOMENACH J.L. GODEMENT F. [...]

[...] Les communismes d'Asie : mort ou métamorphose ? Complexe 1994 MALIK H. The roles of the United States, Russia and China in the new world order. Macmillan 1997 IFRI R.A.M.S.E.S “China : a survey " The Economist March 8th - 14th 1997 Relations internationales et stratégiques, " Faut-il avoir peur de la Chine ? " autumn 1994 - articles by JL Domenach, F. Thual, F. Guilbert, F. Mengin, E. [...]