Can climate change represent a threat for international security?

Résumé du document

Numerous catastrophic weather events including hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and tidal waves are striking the US capital city, New York. All infrastructures but also habitations and buildings are destroyed, flooded or frozen. In this scene of chaos, the whole population tries to flee from the mess. A long line of refugees go in the direction of Mexico to find a secure place. They try to cross the border, but are first violently rejected by the Mexican authorities. This calamity scenario is not yet part of our reality but still belongs to fiction and especially to the Hollywood Film 'The Day After Tomorrow' by Roland Emmerich. But for how long? Even if it is quite unlikely that such violent weather events will happen and lead to a significant conflict between Mexico and the United States, we can wonder what are the real risks of climate change in terms of security and of international order. In a general sense, security is the condition of being protected from or not exposed to danger. According to this definition we can so affirm that climate change is a threat for our security because it can exposes us to several dangers such as sea level rise, droughts, storms etc.

Extraits

[...] To solve this problem and this disagreement the answer could be to create a new specific Climate Change Council with a better representation of the developing countries. This council would need financial and diplomatic support to help manage refugee flows, food aid distribution, disaster relief and other emergencies. However whatever council will have this task, it will probably have to delegate more authority to other regional organizations such as the African Union to be more efficient / A necessity to find a new approach Even if the actions to protect international security against the risks of climate change seem to be quite ambitious and complicated, they still have to be implemented. [...]

[...] Some of the most radical and impressive effects of climate change are on the one hand, the multiplication of catastrophic weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes or storms, and on the other hand, the sea level rise. Over the last 100 years, the global sea level has already risen by about 10 to 25 cm and if the predictions of the IPCC[6] reveal to be correct we could expect a sea level rising up to 88cm by 2100. With the 2/3 of the current population living near coastlines, we can easily understand that violent weather and land loss due to sea level rise can have dramatic impacts by damaging significant infrastructures such as industrial facilities, and port facilities. [...]

[...] They blame the scientists to present a too alarmist point of view. However, even if we do not question the authenticity and the veracity of the scientist's predictions, we have to be aware and recognize that the current considerations about climate change and security are very general and hardly applicable. These predictions have a limited operational range because of their lack of specificity and precision concerning the spatial and temporal localisation of the risks. With the challenge of climate change and security, the establishment of high-defined models finds really its natural limit. [...]

[...] Facing the more and more striking manifestations of climate change politics have to admit that the impacts of climate change can be really destabilizing and trigger regional or international conflicts. Either the hurricane Katrina in the United States or the dramatically situation in Darfur show us that the consequences of climate change are multiple and really various: destruction of infrastructure or cultivable land, situations of water stress or floods, discovery of new resources or destruction of viable resources, multiple movements of migration the challenges are numerous. [...]

[...] - First of all they should be “extensive programmes for flood defences and other natural disaster protection measures.” - Then, massive funding should be allocated to the development of local renewable energy sources. - Further research should be led into the specific areas that are likely to directly experience climate-related changes. - Finally, one of the most important issues would be to define an international status and way of protection and management of environmental refugees. A new legislation at international or at least in national level could be required. [...]