Foresight for transport: EU enlargement and transport

Résumé du document

The 2002-04 FORESIGHT for TRANSPORT project was a program of the EC whose primary objective was "to set up a strategic dialogue in the form of a foresight exercise on the influence of non-transport factors and policy on transport? and to develop a procedure for monitoring these external impacts. Four policy areas were studied: Energy and Environment, ICT, multilevel governance, and the hereby analyzed EU enlargement.

Extraits

[...] Four policy areas were studied: Energy and Environment, ICT, multilevel governance, and the hereby analyzed EU enlargement. I. Methodological approach The project aimed to clarify the causal effects of a set of external variables upon transport and mobility up to 2020+ “Level phase: determining scenario variables The elaboration of the model started with the identification of the main factors characterizing enlargement so as to explore the relevancy of the latter for mobility and transport; hence two rounds of selected expert consultations were organized. [...]

[...] Critical analysis 1. An intelligible but possibly oversimplified model As we can see, this model is primarily based on simple assumptions. On the one hand, such a method may be valuable since it makes the story clearer and thus determines whether the initial assumptions are correct projections. Yet, variables cannot always exhaustively be classified into strictly separate categories. Transport cost is for instance both an external policy factor and an internal (fuel duties) one. As Max Weber stated, historical process/event is structured by multi-causal and interacting variables”, hence the method might turn out not to be that relevant when it comes to use the scenarios as effective benchmarks for future decision-making Critical assessment of the “Bear technique” Relying on such a method is here particularly interesting to highlight the different possible shown by the chart and it enables to clearly identify the different possible trends. [...]

[...] This reference was thought to be the prevailing view on European integration and its future. Three major were thus highlighted; - Economic growth and convergence connected to the enlargement - Political convergence in terms of liberalization and application of EU standards and rules - European solidarity with real perspectives of cohesion/structural funds policy 3. “Level phase: building the scenario models with Bear technique” Based on this initial “common reference”, three alternative scenarios were described; an optimistic one with a rapid integration (Papa Bear), one with a “cooperative Europe” trend (Momma) and another with a “variable geometry Europe” (Baby) trend. [...]

[...] However, this method presents strong limits for further examination. Indeed, experts have expressed the prior assumptions without clearly questioning them; it thus appears difficult to draw an adequate “possibility space model” since the method omits to explore other possible evolutions. Consequently, the model rarely goes further than a Level 1 analysis. Yet, as the world is “non-ergodic” (Douglas North), the changes have to be modeled not only through a “pre-established framework” but also, in the conditions of change. Conclusion To be more specific, the scenario model presents an intelligible method that leads to a comprehensive analysis. [...]