Sustainability of economic development in China

Résumé du document

Napoleon Bonaparte had once said "When China wakes up, the world will tremble". Three centuries later, indeed, China is considered, today, as a frightening economic power. China's growth has been exceptional since 1978. Developing countries can grow rapidly with good policies and institutions. China was very poor in 1978 but Economic reforms and opening up to the outside world unleashed a particularly impressive economic growth. China grew on an average of almost 10 percent per year since 1978, compared to 4 percent for all developing countries. With almost one-fifth of the world's total population, China became the world's fourth largest economy in 2005, measured in current exchange rates. On current trends, it may overtake the US to become the largest one in a few decades. The Chinese economy has grown for a few years like it never known in its history. Given the dynamism of the investment, the high rate of its consumption and the increase in the commercial surpluses, there is no reason to doubt that it will growth story in the years to come.

Extraits

[...] The balanced scenario looks significantly better on the dimension currently of concern to the government, while achieving broadly comparable overall growth. The last scenario “aggressive rebalanced policy” is that with the right package policy of policy reforms it is possible for China to continue to grow rapidly while relying less on industry and investment, and more on services and efficiency gains, including via reallocation of labor and capital. In this paper, I will start with presenting briefly the two fist scenario then concentrate at the last one suggested by the World Bank. [...]

[...] - Development of China's Export Performance”, by Javier Silva-Ruete (mars 2007) - “Reforming China's Banking System: How Much Can Foreign Strategic Investment by Nicholas Hope et Fred Hu, April 2006 - much inequality can China a special report from China development brief, february 2007 - Articles de presse (Le Monde, Courrier International, Times, Washington Post) - Le Cercle des économistes, Cahiers La Chine, janvier 2006 - Key economic developments and prospects in the Asian Pacific Region 2008. United Nations Economic and social commission for Asia and the Pacific. - Directions in development Countries and Regions China's development priorities. Shahid Yusuf and Kaoru Nabeshima The Work Bank. - World Bank China Research Paper 7. Rebalancing China's Economy Modeling a policy package. [...]

[...] In medium-term, according to the majority of economists, the Chinese economy will grow on a rate of 6 to per annum in horizon 2020. However, this scenario supposes the control of the multiple challenges which China will have to raise, in the same time internal and external challenges. The Chinese capacity starts to become aware and carry out reforms but it is not yet sufficient. Taking into account these risks, which are the prospects of the Chinese growth? I - China today A - Current situation Since the early 1980s, China has consistently been the most rapidly growing economy on earth, sustaining an average annual growth rate of 10% from 1978 to 2005, according to official statistic. [...]

[...] Indeed, in its master plan China seems today to have the necessary resorts to maintain several decades of rattrap age b. Savings should decrease in horizon of 5 to 10 years. Indeed, the Chinese savings is currently motivated by very specific phenomenon, different of the traditional determinant of savings (demographic profile, rate of interest, growth of income, inflation). Some studies from the World Bank show that different structural reforms should be sufficient to reduce the whole savings to 10 points of the GDP. [...]

[...] - The Chinese Economy Transition and growth Barry Naughton The planned economy system was eliminated very gradually but the development of an open market “hors plan” was simultaneously authorized for the surpluses produced quantities of the quotas required. OCDE: Trend and recent development FDI Hong Kong is a part of China, taking into account Hong Kong is relative World Trade Organization 18th of April 2008, the Times. Treasury and economy policy general directorate, 2004. [...]