The study of climate change simulation by Arpege-Climat model

Résumé du document

The natural climate of Earth has always been and continues to be in constant evolution. Several thousands of years ago, and before the current climate became warm, the whole Earth was much colder when a huge mass of ice covered the major part of Europe, Russia and North America. It was the last ice age. The reheating of several world areas, during these last years, owed either to air pollution by man, or to natural changes that can be the result of a global planet reheating. These variations can change the climate over much longer periods that we are incapable to note. Climate change and Earth reheating are a major risk for ecological balance and human activities. They are, at the same moment, a political and economic stake for all planet countries. We discuss the various aspects of climate change and the differences it creates on our planet.

Extraits

[...] But such results depend strongly on simulation hypotheses relating to the climate change scenarios. All the more, a confrontation between various models results is imperative in order to get a better understanding of results dependence on used model. Moreover, the comparison of the simulation results to data is a very important stake. References 1. Eva KAMFPHORST; Isabelle REGINSTER. Scénarios dans l'étude des impacts des changements climatiques et socio-économiques sur l'utilisation du sol. Geography, Université catholique de Louvain CNRS. La recherche française sur le climat. Available at : . [...]

[...] (consulted on : 15-07-2002) 3. IPCC. Résumé à l'intention des décideurs. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Available at : . (consulted on : 06-07-2002) 4. IPCC. Deuxième Rapport d'évaluation du GIEC : Changements climatiques 1995. Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Available at : . [...]

[...] (consulted on : 06-07-2002) 5. AGOUMI A. Introduction à la problématique des changements climatiques. Projet magrébin sur les changements climatiques RAB/94/G31. Somigraf 1999 ; 43 p 6. DUCROS F. La modélisation du climat. CLEFS CEA hiver 2002- -22. Available at : . (consulted on : 05-01-2003) 7. [...]

[...] In fact, this study is interested in the climate change simulation using the Arpege Climat model. It's a mesoscale model elaborated by Meteo France with a resolution of 2.8 This simulation takes into account a progressive increase of the greenhouse gas (CO2) corresponding to the evolution scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Group of Experts on Climate Evolution (GIEC) under the hypothesis of a regional growth (Scenario A2). This work was mainly interested in the study of temperature and precipitations evolution using two periods data: a previous period (1960- 1990) and a future period (2070-2100). [...]

[...] Conclusion Even more than in the technological development, where it has demonstrated its efficiency, the modelling occupies a particular role in scientific research, since it translates the fundamental phenomena. In climatology, the modelling of the atmosphere-ocean set is indispensable to predict the planet fate. In front of the variety of obtained results by various climate change models, this study of simulation by the Arpege-Climat model, under the hypothesis of the scenario A2 used by the OPCC, has offered the possibility to test the climatic sensibility of this Meteo France model, under different climatic conditions such as those of the North Africa. [...]