Relations sino-américaines

Résumé du document

Devoir rendu dans le cadre d'un cours de Sino-American Relations, répondant à la demande suivante : Using your understanding of the history of Sino-American relations, speculate on the future of US-PRC relations. What will they look like in 2050? What bearing will history have on the relationship? What do you think will be the three most important factors which will shape that relationship? Explain.

Extraits

[...] What bearing will history have on it? What may be the three most important factors which will shape that relationship? We will start by reminding that Sino-American relations are dense and that mostly both countries need each other. Yet, we will also see that the reality is complex and that opposite systems jeopardize this understanding, threatening the future of the relationship. We will end by speculating on this relation in 2050 and try to underline three important factors that may shape it. [...]

[...] We already understood that the US was declining. If within a few years, the US is not as strong as it is, then it will open the path to a full Communist Asia. Indeed, since 1991, the diplomatic and military presence of the United States in East Asia remains substantial with numerous bases in South Korea and Japan. Also, the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) was born in 1967 through the Bangkok Declaration to unite the states of Southeast Asia against the danger of communism, championed by the US, such as India, to counterbalance China's influence. [...]

[...] The XXIst century opens the path to more stability and growing economic stakes with also similar interests such as the struggle against nuclear proliferation, in North Korea for instance. Still, China and the US oppose each other in many issues as the South China Sea disputes or the status of Taiwan, questioning the future of their relationship. If both see that relation with a great importance, being superpowers, the recent political confrontation between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump may demonstrate that the basis of this bilateral relationship is not as stable as expected. We may thus wonder: what will this relationship look like in 2050? [...]

[...] If the US and China reshape their relationship to defeat climate change, they can fully work together. However, today, unfortunately, capitalism and economic stakes are more important for both China and the US. The latter even withdrew from the Paris Agreement of 2015 and China is one of the biggest polluters even if tries to have a lower environmental impact. After a state of second cold war, there could be a massive war against the climate change, led by China and the US for the survival of the world. [...]

[...] Furthermore, the oppositions are increasing. The recent episode of the tariff trade war may illustrate it. The BBC reminds that the dispute "has seen the US and China impose tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of one another's goods". On the US side, "Donald Trump has long accused China of unfair trading practices and intellectual property theft" while in China, "there is a perception that the US is trying to curb its rise as a global economic power". [...]