Technical Analysis Progress Report - Gold&Boys

Résumé du document

Inside the group, each person has the same "level? of importance. The three of us had a common objective in analysing as many stocks as possible. During the semester we analyzed between 30 to 50 stocks each. Concerning the decision-making, the stock was presented by the member who analyzed it for the rest of the group. For our trade, the decision of entering or closing a position was made only if the entire group agreed on the stock, on the stop loss, on the exit target, etc. We adopted this process mainly because we noticed that it was not difficult to persuade one member whereas it was difficult to convince two of them. Furthermore, the criticisms and the confrontation of our ideas were more virulent and pertinent within the three member group. About the stocks analyses, in order to simplify their understanding and to optimize the communication, we decided to adopt the same tools and settings (color) as well as the same methodology to identify attractive stocks and to analyze them.

Extraits

[...] It helped us to develop our skills in technical analysis and more generally in trading. We improved our level more and more, and we can see that in three months we made some good progresses. Of course we made mistakes, but from a critical point of view, we can say that we have learned a lot from our failures. Regarding the organisation of the group, it was pretty good, as everybody was aware of other people' thoughts. We did communicate pretty well, by meeting each other, phoning nearly everyday, the Internet was appreciated as well. [...]

[...] The prices do not follow the Bollinger band any more. As the stock fell under the trend line that could have worked as a support line, we thought it was getting down. Buying Price: $ 101.5 Number of shares: 10000 Date: 30/11/2004 Profit/Loss: -37100-( 0.2 *10000) - 25*2 = FEEDBACK ANALYSIS: The trend drawn seemed quite weak regarding the volume over the last days. We thought that even if the reversal was not reached when we thought it would, it might have been reached soon; as we observed all the indicators, it seemed to be obvious that the downtrend was close. [...]

[...] Nonetheless, our analysis still seemed to be good. In fact, in a first part the share price felt but in a second part it increased and hence limited the fall of the day. At this point, when it closed on Wednesday 24th, we realised a earning per share of $1,1. Our main mistake was to remain confident in our analysis without really trying to understand what happened this day. Nevertheless, we knew that even if the share price felt, we had to build another analyse. [...]

[...] We realised a net profit of $ D&B Corporation Ticker symbol: DNB (Sequa Corp.) Number of shares: Type of order: market order Stop-loss price: $63 Exit Target: $52 Selling price: $ 60.00 (opening price, short position) Date: 26/11 INITIAL ANALYSIS: Thank to the RSI, the share seem to be overbought (over 70). The stock seems to have a resistance point at 60. The MACD and the stochastic index announced a selling point for respectively yesterday and today or tomorrow. About the candlestick, two following doji seems to announce the reversal point. Buying Price: 56.31 (short position) Number of shares: Date: 07/01/2005 INITIAL ANALYSIS: As we could see on the chart, after our selling position, the stock oscillates close to the resistance level of 60. [...]

[...] This feedback results from our mistakes or observations. It looks like a because we think that everybody should be aware of these points before trading. Our last trades were more directed in this way. Experience plays an important part in trading. However, if we realise successive successful operations in the future, we learnt that we are for all new trades vulnerable! Conclusion To conclude, we agree on the fact that it was a really valuable experience, working in a group as a Hedged fund. [...]